Turdaliyev Jaxongir
Manager, Department of Grants and Innovation Transfer, University of Digital Economics and Agrotechnologies; Master’s student, Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
E-mail:turdaliyevjaxongir190321@gmail.com
ORCID: 0009-0005-8767-0246
Abstract. Using monthly data from January 2024 to September 2026, the paper examines the intra-year behaviour of the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Uzbekistan’s banking system. Simple OLS models show that the NPL ratio falls by an extra 0.33 percentage points in December and rebounds by 0.51 points in January. As a result, the official ratio of 2.99% on 1 January 2026 was almost one point below the trailing twelve-month average of 3.91%. In the first eight months of 2026 the stock of NPLs grew by 32.9% while the loan book grew by only 7.4%. The rebound is discussed in connection with the early-2025 microloan surge and rising household debt service burdens, and the paper proposes measures, consistent with current legislation, on NPL disclosure, vintage monitoring of microloans and affordability assessment before debt collection.
Key words. non-performing loans, year-end effect, microloans, debt service-to-income (DSTI), macroprudential policy, asset classification.