Khurramov Eldor
Independent Researcher at Tashkent State University of Economics
ORCID: 0009-0004-9133-7641
E-mail: e.khurramov@tsue.uz
Abstract. For rapidly expanding retail chains, balancing new-store openings against the preservation of financial stability constitutes a critical managerial challenge. This article uses a panel dataset of 158,715 store-day observations from 140 outlets of a confectionery-café retail chain operating in Uzbekistan, covering the period from January 2022 to June 2026, to examine the effects of discount policy, delivery service, and dynamic competition density on revenue and profitability. Fixed- and random-effects panel regression results show that discounting raises revenue but materially dilutes gross margin, with delivery share exhibiting a similarly dual effect. Analysis of haversine-distance-based dynamic competition rings reveals that, contrary to expectations, the presence of competitors within the closest radius (0–500 meters) does not depress revenue and may instead exert a positive effect through agglomeration, while simultaneously compressing margin. The findings indicate that retail chains should account not only for geographic proximity but also for product-assortment and price-competition characteristics when designing discount policy and siting new branches.
Keywords: panel econometrics, retail, discount policy, profitability, competition density, cannibalization, agglomeration, financial stability.
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