Abdullayev Shavkat Nasriddinovich
Independent Researcher at the Tashkent State
University of Economics
Email:abdullayevshavkat0126@gmail.com
Abstract. The expansion of the shadow economy negatively affects the tax base and budget stability. This study aims to assess the relationship between the shadow economy, tax base, and tax compliance during 2010–2025 and to substantiate tax policy priorities for 2026–2027. The study applies panel data analysis, correlation analysis, and the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. The results indicate that a larger shadow economy is associated with a reduction in the tax base, while stronger tax compliance contributes to improved fiscal efficiency (R² = 0.437; p = 0.020). The study proposes risk-based tax administration, monitoring of cash transactions, and sector-specific tax policies as key measures to reduce the shadow economy.
Keywords: fiscal policy, panel data analysis, tax base, tax discipline, shadow sector, Uzbekistan
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