Yodgorov Sardorbek Samadovich
Lecturer, Department of Economic Theory, TSUE
e-mail: s.yodgorov@tsue.uz
ORCID:0000-0001-6289-2815
Abstract. Safeguarding financial security is a key prerequisite for the sustainable socio-economic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan and for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. At the same time, the labour market—by absorbing shocks originating in the real sector—acts as a major transmission channel through which systemic risks reach the financial sphere. This article quantifies the extent to which core labour-market parameters (the unemployment rate, the employment-to-population ratio, and labour productivity) determine the country’s macro-financial stability. The study’s novelty lies in the comprehensive integration of labour indicators into Uzbekistan’s macro-financial monitoring framework and in empirically demonstrating their high explanatory power in assessing systemic risks. The methodological approaches and policy recommendations proposed here can be applied by regulators and market participants to enhance the resilience of the financial system and mitigate the impact of future shocks.
Keywords: financial security; labour market; unemployment; macro stress testing; hybrid models; fintech data; early-warning indicators