Turayeva Gulizahro
Economics according to philosophy Doctor (PhD),
Gulistan state university associate professor
ORCID: 0000-0002-5764-315X
zakhroturaeva@gmail.com,
+998 94 585 19 84
Abstract. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the stability and long-term dynamics of grain production in Uzbekistan, focusing on the role of technological modernization and innovation. Using real statistical data from 2010 to 2024, the research applies an econometric ARMA-based forecasting model to project grain production trends up to 2030. The analysis examines the impact of mechanization, adoption of agro-innovations, and integration of digital technologies on production efficiency and growth. Results indicate that the ARMA model is stable, stationary, and appropriate for long-term forecasting, with inverse root analysis confirming its robustness. The study also identifies significant fluctuations in production over the observed period, emphasizing the importance of technological and digital transformation in stabilizing yields and ensuring sustainable development in the agricultural sector. Furthermore, the research highlights the critical role of policy support, investment in modern machinery, and innovation adoption in enhancing grain productivity. By providing evidence-based forecasts and analyzing key factors affecting production, this study contributes to strategic planning and policy formulation aimed at achieving food security and sustainable growth in Uzbekistan’s grain sector.
Keywords: grain production, ARMA model, econometric forecasting, stability, technological modernization, agro-innovation, digital agriculture, sustainable development