Shamsiddinova Shahina G‘ayratovna
Student of Tashkent State University of Economics
Email:shahinashamsiddinova06@gmail.com
ORCID: 0009-0009-3620-4789
Abstract: This article provides a quantitative estimate of the fiscal multiplier for the economy of Uzbekistan based on statistical data for 2019-2025. Drawing on John Maynard Keynes’s theory of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), the calculated fiscal multiplier amounted to 1.40 in 2025. It was found that, with government expenditure reaching UZS 312.7 trillion, the economy could generate approximately UZS 437.8 trillion of additional gross value added. A slight decline in the import share from 38.2% to 36.8% led to a renewed increase in the multiplier in 2025. The sectoral analysis shows that infrastructure (1.61) has the highest multiplier effect. The international comparative analysis indicates that Uzbekistan’s multiplier exceeds the regional average (1.32). The study’s findings include practical recommendations for optimizing fiscal policy, developing import-substituting industry, and expanding infrastructure investment.
Keywords: fiscal multiplier, government expenditure, economic growth, marginal propensity to consume (MPC), fiscal policy, import share, infrastructure investment, gross domestic product (GDP), fiscal expansion, Keynesian theory, sectoral multiplier, macroeconomic stability, tax burden, open economy.
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