{"id":6115,"date":"2026-10-24T09:23:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-24T09:23:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115"},"modified":"2026-10-24T09:23:47","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T09:23:47","slug":"the-year-end-effect-in-the-non-performing-loan-ratio-and-household-debt-burden-assessing-hidden-credit-risk-in-uzbekistans-banking-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115","title":{"rendered":"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM"},"content":{"rendered":"

Turdaliyev Jaxongir<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Manager, Department of Grants and Innovation Transfer, University of Digital Economics and Agrotechnologies; Master\u2019s student, Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.<\/em><\/p>\n

E-mail:turdaliyevjaxongir190321@gmail.com<\/em><\/p>\n

ORCID: 0009-0005-8767-0246<\/em><\/p>\n

Abstract.<\/em><\/strong> Using monthly data from January 2024 to September 2026, the paper examines the intra-year behaviour of the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Uzbekistan\u2019s banking system. Simple OLS models show that the NPL ratio falls by an extra 0.33 percentage points in December and rebounds by 0.51 points in January. As a result, the official ratio of 2.99% on 1 January 2026 was almost one point below the trailing twelve-month average of 3.91%. In the first eight months of 2026 the stock of NPLs grew by 32.9% while the loan book grew by only 7.4%. The rebound is discussed in connection with the early-2025 microloan surge and rising household debt service burdens, and the paper proposes measures, consistent with current legislation, on NPL disclosure, vintage monitoring of microloans and affordability assessment before debt collection.<\/em><\/p>\n

Key words.<\/em><\/strong> non-performing loans, year-end effect, microloans, debt service-to-income (DSTI), macroprudential policy, asset classification.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Turdaliyev Jaxongir Manager, Department of Grants and Innovation Transfer, University of Digital Economics and Agrotechnologies; Master\u2019s student, Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan. E-mail:turdaliyevjaxongir190321@gmail.com ORCID: 0009-0005-8767-0246 Abstract. Using monthly data from January 2024 to September Read More …<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[79],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2026-5-issue-1-6"],"yoast_head":"\nTHE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM - Journal of International Finance and Accounting<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM - Journal of International Finance and Accounting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Turdaliyev Jaxongir Manager, Department of Grants and Innovation Transfer, University of Digital Economics and Agrotechnologies; Master\u2019s student, Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan. E-mail:turdaliyevjaxongir190321@gmail.com ORCID: 0009-0005-8767-0246 Abstract. Using monthly data from January 2024 to September Read More ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Journal of International Finance and Accounting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-24T09:23:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"jurnal-admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"jurnal-admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"jurnal-admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4a9988bcb6588f9a14bc8bf9802ad53a\"},\"headline\":\"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-24T09:23:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115\"},\"wordCount\":219,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"2026-5-issue-1-6\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115\",\"name\":\"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM - Journal of International Finance and Accounting\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-24T09:23:47+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?p=6115#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/\",\"name\":\"Journal of International Finance and Accounting\",\"description\":\"Tashkent State University of Economics\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Journal of International Finance and Accounting\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/12\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-photo_2022-12-03_10-29-33-removebg-preview-e1670048062649.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/12\\\/cropped-cropped-cropped-photo_2022-12-03_10-29-33-removebg-preview-e1670048062649.png\",\"width\":90,\"height\":90,\"caption\":\"Journal of International Finance and Accounting\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4a9988bcb6588f9a14bc8bf9802ad53a\",\"name\":\"jurnal-admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/6b71c6402c74a04f56841f06d0b413c68efbbcbc10d903ef02a5db2c123944a4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/6b71c6402c74a04f56841f06d0b413c68efbbcbc10d903ef02a5db2c123944a4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/6b71c6402c74a04f56841f06d0b413c68efbbcbc10d903ef02a5db2c123944a4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"jurnal-admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/interfinance.tsue.uz\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM - Journal of International Finance and Accounting","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM - Journal of International Finance and Accounting","og_description":"Turdaliyev Jaxongir Manager, Department of Grants and Innovation Transfer, University of Digital Economics and Agrotechnologies; Master\u2019s student, Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan. E-mail:turdaliyevjaxongir190321@gmail.com ORCID: 0009-0005-8767-0246 Abstract. Using monthly data from January 2024 to September Read More ...","og_url":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115","og_site_name":"Journal of International Finance and Accounting","article_published_time":"2026-10-24T09:23:47+00:00","author":"jurnal-admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"jurnal-admin","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115"},"author":{"name":"jurnal-admin","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#\/schema\/person\/4a9988bcb6588f9a14bc8bf9802ad53a"},"headline":"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM","datePublished":"2026-10-24T09:23:47+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115"},"wordCount":219,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#organization"},"articleSection":["2026-5-issue-1-6"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115","url":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115","name":"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM - Journal of International Finance and Accounting","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-10-24T09:23:47+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?p=6115#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"THE \u201cYEAR-END EFFECT\u201d IN THE NON-PERFORMING LOAN RATIO AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT BURDEN: ASSESSING HIDDEN CREDIT RISK IN UZBEKISTAN\u2019S BANKING SYSTEM"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#website","url":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/","name":"Journal of International Finance and Accounting","description":"Tashkent State University of Economics","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#organization","name":"Journal of International Finance and Accounting","url":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/cropped-cropped-cropped-photo_2022-12-03_10-29-33-removebg-preview-e1670048062649.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/cropped-cropped-cropped-photo_2022-12-03_10-29-33-removebg-preview-e1670048062649.png","width":90,"height":90,"caption":"Journal of International Finance and Accounting"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/#\/schema\/person\/4a9988bcb6588f9a14bc8bf9802ad53a","name":"jurnal-admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b71c6402c74a04f56841f06d0b413c68efbbcbc10d903ef02a5db2c123944a4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b71c6402c74a04f56841f06d0b413c68efbbcbc10d903ef02a5db2c123944a4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b71c6402c74a04f56841f06d0b413c68efbbcbc10d903ef02a5db2c123944a4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"jurnal-admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz"],"url":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6115"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6115\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6117,"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6115\/revisions\/6117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/interfinance.tsue.uz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}